A new poll by FindOutNow has propelled Reform UK into second place nationally, overtaking Labour for the first time. The party, led by Nigel Farage, now polls at 24 per cent, just behind the Conservatives at 26 per cent and ahead of Labour on 23 per cent. With momentum growing, Farage has declared his party “a serious contender” for the 2026 Senedd elections, suggesting Reform could “win a lot of seats” in Cardiff Bay under the newly introduced proportional voting system.
Farage emphasised the importance of the upcoming Senedd elections during remarks ahead of the party’s conference in Birmingham.
“We’ve got these elections coming up in 2026,” he said. “There’ll be 16 super-constituencies, six members each, all elected under proportional representation. We will be taking this seriously.”
While Reform UK does not currently hold any seats in the Welsh Parliament, it aims to capitalise on the new voting system, which replaces the first-past-the-post method. The party’s improved performance in Wales at the last general election, where it came second in 13 of the 32 constituencies, has fuelled optimism. Reform secured 16.9 per cent of the vote across Wales, an 11.5-point increase from 2019, when it contested as the Brexit Party.
Although none of its five Westminster seats are in Wales, the party’s presence is growing. In Torfaen, Reform gained its first councillors in Wales when three independents joined the party, forming a local Reform group. Among them was Alan Slade, a former Labour politician, who said he was drawn to the party’s “common sense” policies.
“I think Reform needs a chance to show that it’s a party of action rather than words, so that suits me, because that’s exactly what I like to think I do,” Slade said.
The party’s general election manifesto, launched in Merthyr Tydfil, included pledges to freeze “non-essential” immigration, cut taxes for small businesses, and scrap the UK’s target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Critics have accused Farage of promoting populist and anti-immigration rhetoric, but Slade dismissed such labels, stating:
“When people say ‘populist,’ what does that mean? To me, it means carrying out things that people want.”
The party’s rise has not been without challenges. Slade acknowledged mixed reactions to the formation of the Reform group on Torfaen council, noting some “vitriolic” comments but also an “outpouring of support.”
The party’s national surge coincides with speculation about financial backing from tech mogul Elon Musk. Reports suggest the Tesla and X owner may donate £78 million to Reform UK following Donald Trump’s recent US election victory. Farage, however, dismissed the rumours as “complete news to me.”
Pollster Tyron Surmon of FindOutNow highlighted the unique methodology behind the poll that placed Reform ahead of Labour. Respondents were first asked about their likelihood of voting, and undecided voters were excluded rather than assigned a preference based on past behaviour. Surmon argued that this approach captures a snapshot of current sentiment but may yield more volatile results compared to traditional methods.
The poll has drawn both intrigue and scepticism from political analysts. Luke Tryll of More in Common remarked:
“This shows just how deeply we are in 3.5-party politics now,” but cautioned that similar surges in past elections have not translated into votes.
As the political landscape shifts, Reform UK’s growing support signals a challenge to the traditional dominance of Labour and the Conservatives. With the 2026 Senedd elections on the horizon, the party’s ability to maintain momentum and secure seats in Cardiff Bay remains to be seen.
