A NEWS study has raised concerns that the asteroid Apophis, known as the ‘God of Chaos’, could pose a higher risk to Earth than initially thought. Although scientists have long monitored its trajectory, new research indicates a small chance of an impact, even as early as 2029.
Apophis, a 340-metre-wide asteroid, is expected to pass Earth in April 2029, coming within 40,000 kilometres of our planet. While this distance is close in astronomical terms, experts were initially confident it would not hit Earth. However, a recent study by Canadian astronomers Paul Wiegert and Benjamin Hyatt suggests that a collision with a smaller object could nudge Apophis into one of Earth’s ‘keyhole’ trajectories, potentially causing it to hit at a later date.
The odds of such a scenario occurring are low—less than one in two billion for a direct impact in 2029. For the asteroid to hit Earth, it would need to collide with an object around 3.4 metres wide, roughly the size of a grand piano. However, even a much smaller object, about two feet across, could push Apophis into a dangerous path that could lead to an impact in the future.
If Apophis were to strike Earth, it would unleash energy equivalent to 1,000 megatons of TNT, causing widespread devastation. Fortunately, the chances of this happening are still extremely slim, with scientists estimating less than a one-in-a-million chance of an impact from smaller debris deflecting the asteroid.
The study serves as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of space and the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects. However, the odds of a collision remain exceptionally low, and scientists continue to track Apophis’ path closely. For now, while the ‘God of Chaos’ may stir our imaginations, the risk to our planet remains minimal.
Experts continue to monitor Apophis as it approaches, with NASA and other space agencies on high alert for any changes in its course. The next few years will be critical in determining whether this asteroid will pose a more significant threat in the future. For now, the focus remains on ensuring our planet is prepared for any potential cosmic threats.
