As the United States head to the polls, UK viewers keen to follow the results may know the likely next president—whether it’s Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—by late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Some key battleground states may reveal their results by morning, possibly even determining the next occupant of the White House. However, if the race is close, the final result could be delayed by legal disputes and protests.
Why this election matters to you
The outcome of the US presidential election has significant implications beyond American borders, particularly for the UK. Whoever sits in the White House can profoundly impact global policy on issues ranging from climate change and international trade to defence agreements. As the UK seeks to solidify its international partnerships post-Brexit, a US administration aligned with British priorities could be crucial. For instance, the UK’s trade deals, stance on NATO, and joint responses to security concerns could all be affected. Additionally, the election result could influence global markets, including the pound and UK stocks, which are sensitive to US economic policy.
The fundamentals: Unlike the UK’s first-past-the-post system, the US presidential race is determined by the Electoral College. The winning candidate must secure at least 270 out of 538 electoral votes. This means that the contest often hinges on key swing states, rather than simply the nationwide vote tally. The seven critical battlegrounds this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Alongside the presidency, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 34 Senate seats, and 13 state governorships are also on the ballot, which could shape the political landscape in the US and determine the ease with which the next president can enact policy.
Election night coverage in the UK
UK viewers can follow the election coverage on major broadcasters such as BBC, ITV, Channel 4, and Sky News, as well as CNN’s coverage, accessible via Sky TV or CNN’s website. The Herald will also be posting live updates on its Facebook page.
For those determined to watch the night unfold, it may be wise to sleep early, perhaps around 8 or 9pm, and set multiple alarms for midnight or 1am. While early results may come in before then, some states are likely to take well into the next day or even longer to declare their winners if the results are tight.
Key times to watch overnight
10pm: Early Exit Polls
Voting closes in Indiana and most of Kentucky, although neither state is expected to be particularly competitive. The first batch of exit polls is also released, providing insight into which issues voters found most important. Unlike UK exit polls, which often predict the result, US exit polls mainly gauge voter sentiment, rather than projecting the final outcome.
Midnight UK: Georgia and North Carolina
Polls close in nine states, including Georgia and North Carolina—two pivotal battlegrounds that may provide early clues to the overall direction of the night. Although Trump is likely to appear ahead initially, these early leads may shift as results come in from larger, traditionally Democratic states. It’s worth noting that broadcasters and the Associated Press may start “calling” certain states if they find one candidate to have an insurmountable lead.
Note: A “call” is a projection made by major media outlets based on statistical analysis of returns, though official results may take longer to finalise.
1am: Pennsylvania’s Role
With polls closing in about half the country, any national trends may start to emerge, but Pennsylvania will be the key focus. With 19 electoral votes and polls showing it to be one of the tightest races, Pennsylvania could be a game-changer. A win here could significantly boost either candidate’s path to victory, although Pennsylvania’s rule against counting mail-in ballots before Election Day may delay the result. In 2020, it took four days to declare a winner here.
If one candidate can secure Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, their opponent will face an uphill battle.
2am: Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin
This hour brings poll closures in 15 more states, including three remaining battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While results will start coming in, some states could delay their calls. Wisconsin has taken well into the following day in past elections, and Arizona’s count stretched over a week in 2020.
Another interesting watch is Iowa, where an unexpected poll recently gave Harris a three-point lead. If she wins here, it may signal stronger-than-expected performance in similar states, possibly shaping the broader outcome.
At this stage, Trump may hold a lead in the running tally of electoral votes, but this could shift as results from large Democratic-leaning states like New York and California come in. If the battlegrounds already closed show clear leads by now, the election result could be apparent.
3am: Final Swing State – Nevada
Polls close in Nevada, the last swing state of the night. Although its six electoral votes are unlikely to single-handedly determine the election outcome, any delays could prolong the uncertainty. It took 88 hours to call Nevada in 2020.
Candidates may also make statements to supporters. Trump’s previous comments suggest he is unlikely to concede on election night unless faced with a decisive defeat. In 2020, he made a speech shortly after polls closed, alleging electoral fraud.
4am: Final Poll Closures
Polls close in the last few states, including California and Alaska. Though it is technically possible for the race to hinge on Alaska, this scenario remains highly improbable. A more likely outcome is that if the election remains undecided, both parties will engage in legal battles in key states, potentially delaying a clear resolution.
If the race is close, pro-Trump supporters may raise claims of election interference, as they did in 2020, though these claims were subsequently dismissed in court. While it’s possible that networks may project a winner by now, the election’s official outcome could remain unclear.
