PLAID Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth’s call for Wales to be given parity with Scotland seems to me to be a smart political move by him, writes Jonathan Edwards.
Since the dropping of a clear roadmap to independence, Plaid has had precious little to say about how they want to see Wales move forward on its constitutional journey.
Readers might be interested to learn that I am currently writing my memoirs, and I have just finished the chapter on the 2010-15 Parliament. It was a period of considerable change in the relationship between the constituent parts of the UK. Northern Ireland was agitating for powers over corporation tax to enable them to compete with the Republic. The SNP won the 2011 Scottish Parliament elections and secured an Independence Referendum, which, for a short period, made it feel like anything was possible. Wales had voted conclusively for law-making powers. The Silk Commission, which followed, recommended devolving fiscal powers for the first time as well as a major advancement in fields of responsibility for Wales.
Throughout this period, I would often argue that the most powerful message in Welsh politics was parity with Scotland. It removed the fear factor for those of our fellow citizens who were unconvinced of Welsh constitutional advancement. If Scotland could have it, why couldn’t Wales? It also put Unionist politicians in a difficult spot. They would happily vote for these powers for Scotland yet deny them for their own country.
Of course, Brexit changed everything. Since then, the gear has very much been “reverse”. We are now back in an attritional battle rather than manoeuvring for a swift and decisive victory despite the emphatic growth of Yes Cymru and the support for Independence in Wales.
(Pic: Rob Norman)
I have no idea if this is just a short-term tactical intervention by Mr ap Iorwerth or whether this is a strategic position with the post-2026 Senedd in mind. I have no idea if the numbers are correct, and I am no psephologist. Still, based on the recent Survation poll, I picked up a seat predictor on social media that anticipated Labour gaining 38 seats, Plaid 24, Reform 17, Conservatives 16 and the Liberal Democrats 1.
For this article, let’s just anticipate that this is the sort of seat allocation we will see after the election in 2026, with Labour substantially short of a majority, with 48 being the magic number. There is only one stable option for the next Administration, and that is some sort of understanding between Labour and Plaid. No other option is possible. The Tories and Reform haven’t got the numbers together, and neither Plaid nor Labour would work with Reform.
Considering Labour is now in power in Westminster, a new Wales Bill to equalise powers with Scotland is in their gift. There have been plenty of Commissions from Silk to Thomas to justify the policy.
The question is, having set out his stall, how determined is Mr Ap Iorwerth to back up his position? Will he make this a red line for the election and when the post-election discussions begin, or is he sabre-rattling? If Labour refuses to accede, would he be willing to destabilise the Welsh Government in the next Senedd and bring it down at the risk of playing into the hands of Reform?
Things might not be totally straightforward for Mr Ap Iorwerth in any case. Unless he has got his act together in identifying candidates who aren’t from the left-wing faction of the party, he might be leading a group radically different in composition after the election, who may well want one of their true believers in charge.
Furthermore, how can he argue that he offers change at the election if his main pitch can only be delivered in agreement with Labour?
Furthermore, Labour could well undermine his credibility in the lead-up to the election by saying that since he withdrew Plaid from the Cooperation Agreement, they can’t trust him and would refuse to negotiate if he is Leader.
The latest Scottish polls indicate that support for independence is growing and that the SNP will win the next Scottish Parliament elections. Labour will have to come up with a new offer for Scotland soon.
If I were a Labour strategist, I would make a similar offer to the people of Wales to park my tanks on Plaid’s lawns and present myself as the best-placed force to stop Reform. Plaid voters would desert in droves.
Remember, above all, in politics, the worst thing you can do to your opponents is give them what they want.
