Reform UK, the political group led by Nigel Farage, has reported a dramatic rise in its membership numbers in Wales, claiming to have surpassed the Welsh Conservatives. The party asserts it now has 7,800 members in the country, significantly more than the estimated 5,000 members of the Conservative Party in Wales. While these figures cannot be independently verified, the Conservatives did not dispute the numbers when approached.
Reform UK’s spokesman for Wales, Oliver Lewis, expressed confidence in the party’s momentum ahead of the next Senedd election in May 2026. He said: “Reform’s membership in Wales is surging as we prepare for next year’s election. Whilst the other parties argue about their failures in office and opposition, Reform are organising and ready to offer Wales real change. Reform has all the momentum in Wales, and we are only just getting started. Wales is broken. Wales needs Reform.”
The Welsh Conservatives, however, dismissed the claims. A spokesman for the party stated: “We never discuss membership specifics, but you can be assured that the Welsh Conservatives have many thousands of members plus thousands of activists. We have been winning in by-elections across Wales since the general election and are looking forward to taking the fight to our political opponents in the Senedd elections in May 2026.”
A Changing Political Landscape
The upcoming Senedd election will see a significant expansion of the Welsh Parliament, with the number of seats increasing from 60 to 96. Changes to constituency boundaries and the voting system will also come into effect. The election will serve as a critical test for Reform UK, marking their first Welsh-specific contest since gaining four MPs in the July 2024 general election. Notably, the party also secured three councillors in Torfaen after defections from other groups.
Reform UK’s rising membership and increasing visibility have raised questions about their impact on the Welsh Conservatives, who have reportedly been losing support to the Farage-led party. Analysis by Cardiff University professors Jac Larner and Richard Wyn Jones revealed that a significant portion of Conservative voters from 2019 have since shifted allegiance to Reform UK. The study found that only 39% of those who backed the Tories in 2019 remained loyal in the 2024 general election. The rest either moved to Reform, Labour, or abstained from voting, with some demographic loss attributed to deaths among older voters.
Dr Larner noted: “The vast majority of those who voted Reform UK in 2024’s general election previously voted Conservative.” Former Welsh Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies has also warned of the threat posed by Reform UK. In a recent article, he urged his party to adapt, cautioning against becoming a “lighter” version of Reform and emphasising the need to be the “real deal.”
Senedd Prospects
Recent polls suggest that Reform UK could win around 20 seats in the expanded Senedd, a development that would mark a seismic shift in Welsh politics. While such projections are speculative, they highlight the growing support for Reform UK among voters disillusioned with the traditional parties.
As the political landscape in Wales evolves, the 2026 Senedd elections promise to be a critical juncture for all parties. For now, Reform UK’s bold claims of membership growth and political momentum have added fuel to an already heated competition for the future of Welsh governance.
