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Ceredigion Preseli and Mid and South Pembrokeshire polls and voting history for former seats 

A general stock image of a ballot box (Pic: LDR)

THERE’S just a day to the July 4 general election, where 15 candidates will fight for your vote in the two new seats of Mid and south Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion Preseli.

As part of constituency changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire covers Letterston, Solva and St Davids down to Hundleton and Tenby, stretching eastwards to Amroth, Narberth and Lampeter Velfrey.

Mid and South Pembrokeshire (Pic: Boundary Commission for Wales)

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; which extends up past Aberystwyth and also includes Cilgerran, Crymych, St Dogmaels, Fishguard and Llanrhian.

Ceredigion Preseli (Pic: Boundary Commission for Wales)

Candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Hanna Andersen (Women’s Equality Party); Alistair Cameron (Welsh Liberal Democrats); Stephen Crabb (Welsh Conservative); Stuart Marchant (Reform UK); James Purchase (Green Party); Vusi Siphika (Independent); Cris Tomos (Plaid Cymru); and Henry Tufnell (Welsh Labour).

Candidates for the new Ceredigion Preseli seat are: Ben Lake for Plaid Cymru, Liberal Democrat Mark Williams, Welsh Labour’s Jackie Jones, Conservative Aled Thomas, Tomos Barlow for the Green Party, Karl Robert Pollard for Reform UK, and Taghrid Al-Mawed for the Workers Party of Britain.

With the boundary changes, which see a cut the number of Welsh MPs from 40 to 32, the former constituencies of Ceredigion, Preseli Pembrokeshire, and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire are now no more.

The two new seats are expecting a Plaid Cymru win for Ceredigion Preseli and a Labour win for Mid and South Pembrokeshire, according to polls.

Listed below are the ebb and flow of winners and losers for the now-defunct seats since 1997.

Ceredigion election history:  1997- Plaid Cymru win Cynog Dafis, Robert ‘Hag’ Harris 2nd for Lab; 2000 by-election Plaid win Simon Thomas, Mark Williams Liberal-Democrates 2nd; 2001 election: Simon Thomas hold, Mark Williams 2nd; 2005 – Mark Williams win, Simon Thomas 2nd; 2010 – Mark Williams hold, Penri James for Plaid 2nd; 2015 Mark Williams hold, Mike Parker for Plaid 2nd; 2017 – narrow Ben Lake win for Plaid by 104 votes,  Mark Williams 2nd; 2019 – Ben Lake hold by increased majority, Amanda Jenner (Cons) 2nd, Mark Williams 3rd.

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For the now defunct Preseli Pembrokeshire, parts of which are in the two new seats, election history was…. 1997 Jack Lawrence (Lab), Robert Buckland (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Jackie Lawrence, Stephen Crabb 2nd; 2005 S Crabb, Sue Heyman (Lab) 2nd; 2010 S Crabb, Mari Rees (Lab); 2015 – S Crabb, Paul Miller (Labour) 2nd; 2017 – S Crabb, Philippa Thompson (Lab) 2nd, 314 majority for SC; 2019 – S Crabb, Phillip Thompson 2nd.

The former Carmarthenshire West and South Pembrokeshire seat, parts of which are in the new Mid and south Pembrokeshire seat, election history is: 1997 Nick Ainger (Lab), Owen Williams (Cons) 2nd; 2001 Nick Ainger, Robert Wilson (Cons) 2nd; 2005 Nick Ainger, David Morris (Cons) 2nd; 2010 Simon Hart (Cons), Nick Ainger 2nd; 2015 Simon Hart, Delyth Evans (Lab) 2nd; 2017 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney (Lab) 2nd; 2019 Simon Hart, Marc Tierney 2nd.

In collated results of different polls from Britain Predicts, The Economist, electionmaps, Electoral Calculus, Focaldata, the FT, Ipsos, More in Common, Savanta, Survation, WeThink, and YouGov, Labour is expected to win the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat for 2024 with vote percentages ranging from 33 per cent to as high as 50 per cent.

Ceredigion Preseli polls are predicting a Plaid Cymru win, ranging from a narrow 27 per cent of votes win to as much as 48 per cent.

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