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Poll predicts narrow Labour win for Mid-South Pembrokeshire seat

There’s a six-way battle for the new Pembrokeshire Mid and South seat. Pictured, from left top, are: Henry Tufnell, Alistair Cameron, Stephen Crabb, James Purchase, Cris Tomos, and Stuart Marchant (Pics: Candidates’ own)

THE NEW general election seat of Mid and South Pembrokeshire is expected to see a narrow Labour win over the Conservatives, against a projected landslide win for Keir Starmer nationally, in what is a now a six-way local battle for your vote.

As part of constituency changes, Pembrokeshire’s seats of Preseli Pembrokeshire and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, are now no more.

As part of the changes, bits of north Pembrokeshire – including St Davids and– are joining the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire constituency.

Other parts of the north of the county are now in the new Ceredigion Preseli constituency; areas including Fishguard, Crymych and Maenclochog joining with Ceredigion.

With a July 4 date set for the general election, the currently declared candidates for Mid and South Pembrokeshire are: Welsh Liberal Democrat Alistair Cameron, with Stephen Crabb for the Conservatives, Stuart Marchant for Reform UK, James Purchase for the Green Party, Cris Tomos for Plaid Cymru, and Henry Tufnell for Labour.

A Labour win is predicted for the new Pembrokeshire Mid And South seat by You Gov (Pic: YouGov)

Global public opinion and data company YouGov is predicting Labour’s Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a historic majority of 194 seats, a central projection of 422 Labour wins, which would be bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory, and the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.

With the new boundary changes Wales will be dropping from 40 seats to 32 seats after the general election, and YouGov’s model has Labour winning 28 of them.

YouGov’s figures for the new Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat predict a Labour win, with 42.6 per cent of the vote, followed by Conservatives on 33.4, Reform 9.4, Plaid Cymru 7.4, Liberal Democrats 3.6, and Green 2.8.

Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates have previously outlined why you should have their vote.

Green candidate James Purchase was walking the long-distance pilgrim trail to Santiago de Compostela in Spain when the election was declared.
“I, James Purchase, was eating a pilgrim’s meal with my wife, Carolyn, when I heard someone mumble in Spanish something about ‘Sunak’ – whilst pointing at their phone and looking at us.

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“We are walking the long-distance pilgrim trail to Santiago de Compostela in Spain and our fellow peregrines knew us to be from Walesland!

“I immediately guessed what was afoot and my Western Telegraph online news feed confirmed my horror. I feel certain that Rishi Sunak waited until I was out of the country before calling the election! What other reason could there be – as everyone said it would be an Autumn election?

“However, his plan has been foiled as we have an excellent Pembrokeshire Green Party Committee looking after things whilst I’m away and I shall be back as fast as my little legs will carry me … literally!”

Plaid’s Cris Tomos, a former county councillor and north county community activist, said: “I will be focussing my campaign on how greater powers can be given to communities and neighbourhoods to address local employment, energy and home building opportunities and develop neighbourhood plans to support carers and those affected by the spiralling day to day expenses and cost of living .

“There needs to be a fundamental change in British politics, a new vision of economic focus on communities and supporting small and medium size businesses within those neighbourhoods. We need to ensure communities can support and scrutinise development such as harmful waste processing sites in their neighbourhood and have the final say when harmful developments can be permanently blocked, such as the waste site in Withyhedge.”

Reform UK has been contacted for a picture and statement for its candidate, Stuart Marchant.

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