In a recent ITV Cymru Wales/You Gov/Barn Cymru survey, support for First Minister Mark Drakeford has taken a significant hit, mirroring a broader decline in popularity for the Labour Party. The poll, conducted among 1,004 adults aged 16 and above in Wales, indicates a 9% drop in support for Drakeford over the last three months. The survey also presents a challenging outlook for Labour at both the Welsh and UK levels, defying expectations of a Labour victory in the upcoming general election slated before January 2025.
Shifts in Party Preferences
When asked about their voting intentions, 42% of respondents expressed support for Labour, representing an 8% dip compared to September. Meanwhile, the Conservatives saw a modest increase of 1%, reaching 20%, Plaid Cymru gained 3%, rising to 15%, the Liberal Democrats witnessed a 2% boost at 7%, and Reform made a notable leap from 8% to 12%.
Regional and Constituency Dynamics
Breaking down the numbers by Welsh constituencies, Labour experienced an 8% decline, dropping from 41% in September to 33% in December. The Conservatives saw an upswing to 21%, Plaid Cymru’s support rose to 23% from 19%, and Reform climbed from 8% to 10%. Meanwhile, the support for the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party remained unchanged.
In the regional list, Labour faced a 5% decrease, down from 34% to 29%, while the Conservatives gained 4%, reaching 20%. Plaid Cymru and Reform also saw increases, climbing by 3% and 1%, respectively. Notably, there was a 3% decrease for Abolish the Welsh Assembly, while the Green Party experienced a 1% drop.
Drakeford’s Diminishing Popularity
The figures paint a challenging picture for Mark Drakeford, with approval ratings slipping from 40% in September to 31% in December. Those who perceive him as performing fairly or very badly have risen by 7%, while uncertainty has reduced, leaving only 13% responding with “don’t know.”
Mark Drakeford has previously announced his intention to step down as First Minister in 2024, but the timing remains uncertain. This decision could influence the leadership landscape within Welsh Labour, prompting questions about whether it will precede or follow the next general election.
Assessing Other Political Figures
The survey also scrutinized the public’s perception of other political figures. Rishi Sunak’s approval rating as Prime Minister declined by 4% since September, with 19% believing he is doing fairly or very well. Sir Keir Starmer’s ratings, on the other hand, saw a marginal increase of 1%, reaching 32% for those who think he is doing fairly or very well, while those who view his performance as fairly or very bad rose to 53%.
Independence and Parliamentary Reforms
The poll found a consistent 22% of respondents supporting Welsh independence, while those opposing it decreased by 3%. 30% of respondents expressed a desire to abolish the Welsh Parliament, up from 26% three months ago. Conversely, those against abolition decreased by 5%, settling at 42%. There was a 2% increase in respondents declining to answer this question.
The findings underscore a shifting political landscape in Wales, with implications for upcoming elections and potential leadership changes within the Welsh Labour party. As political dynamics continue to evolve, these poll results will likely prompt further analysis and debate among both politicians and the electorate.
