THE FIRST MINISTER OF WALES is set to publicly challenge UK government welfare reforms in a major speech on Tuesday (May 6), warning of their potential impact on Welsh communities—yet stopping short of demanding the cuts be reversed.
The address, timed to mark exactly one year until the next Senedd election, will see Eluned Morgan sharpen her stance on decisions made in Westminster, particularly those unveiled by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in the Spring Statement. These include controversial changes to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) and reductions in health-related elements of Universal Credit.
Although Morgan has until now refrained from directly criticising the changes since their announcement in March, she is expected to express her growing concern. “Where we see unfairness, we will stand up to it,” she will say. “When Westminster makes decisions that we think will harm Welsh communities, we will not stay silent.”
The First Minister is expected to call for greater scrutiny of UK-wide decisions from a devolved perspective, as well as renewed demands for increased NHS investment, rail infrastructure funding, and greater control over the Crown Estate—critical for the future of renewable energy projects in Wales.
In a rhetorical nod to the legacy of former First Minister Rhodri Morgan, she will introduce the phrase “the red Welsh way”—a contemporary echo of the early 2000s slogan “clear red water”, which was used to differentiate Welsh Labour from Tony Blair’s administration in London.
This attempt to forge a distinct political identity comes as Morgan faces increasing pressure from both opposition parties and within her own ranks. Critics argue she has failed to effectively challenge Westminster on key issues, including rail funding and the devolution of policing and justice. Plaid Cymru has accused the Welsh Government of remaining “silent” on welfare changes that disproportionately affect Wales, where around 275,000 people of working age claim PIP and 150,000 receive the health-related component of Universal Credit.
Despite writing to the UK Government to request a Wales-specific impact assessment of the cuts, Morgan has yet to receive a response.
Acknowledging the high political stakes ahead of the 2026 Senedd vote, Morgan is expected to frame the contest as a pivotal moment. “The rise of Reform and the risks of a divided left vote mean the future of Wales is at stake,” she will warn.
While making clear she intends to “get more out of the relationship with the UK government” and “challenge from within”, Morgan will also distance herself from the notion of blind allegiance to Labour at Westminster. “When UK Labour does not deliver for Wales… when we disagree we will say it,” she will declare.
In a moment of levity likely to draw headlines, Morgan is also expected to liken the relationship between Cardiff Bay and Westminster to Gavin and Stacey: “It’s the same family, but what works in England may not necessarily suit Wales.”
On climate and energy policy, she will take a firm line. With the future of offshore wind farm development at stake, Morgan is set to underline the importance of devolved control over the Crown Estate. “We saw them take our coal. We saw them take our water. We will not let them take our wind. Not on my watch,” she will state—though it remains unclear how such control would be achieved.
The UK Government’s recent pledge of £25 million towards making coal tips safe in Wales will be welcomed in the speech but described as insufficient. “It’s a start, but it’s nowhere near enough,” she is expected to say.
Opposition reaction to the anticipated speech has already been scathing. The Welsh Conservatives dismissed it as a “last-ditch attempt to rescue the situation,” while Reform UK, buoyed by gains in last week’s local elections in England, claimed Welsh Labour is now firmly in their sights. Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, described any renewed push from Welsh Labour as “too little too late,” questioning the credibility of a political reset under the longstanding rhetoric of “partnership in power.”
As Morgan attempts to balance allegiance to her party with the growing demand for a distinct Welsh voice, Tuesday’s speech may well set the tone for the long road to next year’s election. Whether it will be enough to reassure sceptics and galvanise supporters remains to be seen.
