School attendance rates across Welsh secondary schools may not return to pre-pandemic levels until as late as 2034, according to a sobering new report from Estyn, the education inspectorate for Wales.
The report reveals that although attendance figures for 2023–24 have seen a modest rise—reaching an average of 89%—pupils are still missing nearly 11 more days of school each year compared to the period before Covid-19 disrupted education across the country. Estyn warns that, at the current pace of recovery, it could take over a decade for attendance levels to fully rebound.
The challenges are particularly acute in secondary schools. Ian Loynd, headteacher of St Teilo’s Church in Wales High School in Cardiff, described persistent absenteeism as a “huge issue” that schools are working hard to address.
Speaking to BBC Radio Wales Breakfast, Mr Loynd linked the ongoing attendance problems directly to the legacy of lockdowns and school closures. “I’m confident attendance levels are entirely a product of the pandemic, lockdown and closure of schools,” he said.
He painted a mixed picture of attendance trends within his own school, highlighting that while Year 7 pupils tend to attend regularly, older students—especially those in Year 11—are far more likely to stay away. One factor cited in the report is that some Year 11 pupils preparing for exams prefer to revise at home, further fuelling the decline in school attendance.
However, Mr Loynd stressed that headline attendance figures can be misleading. He drew attention to the problem of internal truancy, where students are present on site but actively avoid lessons. “It’s a chronic challenge,” he said, attributing much of the behaviour to increased emotional wellbeing difficulties, an issue he claims was not prevalent before the pandemic.
He added that pupils with poor attendance often come from families where parents themselves had negative experiences of education. To tackle this, the school has introduced a range of supportive measures, including partnerships with charities and the provision of free uniforms for families facing hardship.
“There’s a higher than average number of pupils on free school meals at our school,” he noted, adding that he had personally visited families at home to better understand the barriers to regular attendance. “For those struggling financially, there’s a great deal of shame, so I wouldn’t expect families to come to us,” he said.
“I rarely meet parents who aren’t aspirational for their children,” Mr Loynd added. “But we don’t believe in a single attendance strategy—one size doesn’t fit all and blanket approaches rarely make a difference.”
The Estyn report also highlights the uneven support available across Wales, with Chief Inspector Owen Evans warning that schools cannot resolve the issue in isolation.
In a statement accompanying the report, Mr Evans said: “We’ve added new examples of successful approaches from schools and two further recommendations for Welsh Government, reinforcing the pressing need for a joined-up, national approach to improving attendance.”
Responding to the report, the Welsh Government said that increasing school attendance remains a “key commitment” and that it would consider both the new and revised recommendations carefully.
As schools continue to grapple with the long tail of the pandemic’s disruption, the path back to full attendance remains a long and uncertain one—demanding targeted, collaborative action across the education system.
