WALES is in line to see exceptional temperatures developing later this weekend and early next week.
The Met Office said: “If anything computer model output over last 24-36 hrs has reinforced the signal for the hot temperatures more widely across Wales. We have just issued a Red warning (High Likelihood of High Impacts) for parts of England –
“We are not currently considering issuing a Red warning for Wales, but we are now considering issuing another Amber warning to cover more of North Wales and Dyfed-Powys during Monday and Tuesday – although this is likely to be for Medium Likelihood of Medium level Impacts on our risk matrix.
“SO as far as warnings are concerned – we will see a greater expanse of Amber across Wales shortly (see updated Warning that now covers Pembrokeshire) – but high impacts and temperatures are probably more likely the further east you are.”
As far as timings are concerned we continue to see heat build across Wales during Saturday but more especially Sunday with heat likely to peak on Monday and Tuesday. We should start to see a transition to less warm air on Tuesday night and Wednesday – possibly with thunderstorms. At the moment it looks as if many places will see daytime temperatures in the low 30’s early next week, and the hottest temperatures in Wales are likely to be in and around communities that are in the east of Wales where we could see values in the mid 30’s, although we also see some indications of high values in some communities that are to the north of high ground – eg along the North Wales coast and perhaps along parts of north Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion coast too. Wales record temperature is 35.2°C – there is a reasonable chance it could be broken. As well as hot daytime temperatures we will see some high night time temperatures on Sunday night and especially Monday night these likely to particularly high and possibly record breaking in themselves in and around the bigger cities and conurbations. The cumulative effects of a number of very warm nights and hot days will be difficult and unpleasant for many and dangerous for some too.
We have just issued a Red (High Likelihood of High Impacts) warning for parts of England. As I said above – we are not currently expecting to issue a Red warning for Wales but remember that a Red warning means a High Likelihood of High Impacts, and the Amber warning we have in place already means there is Medium Likelihood of High Impacts and that in itself is a very strong statement of risk over the coming days.
Over the weekend and into next week then we can expect to see a progressive increase in hot weather effects on people, and to an extent on parts of our infrastructure too. The spell of hot weather will also mean a significant increase in potential for wildfire/grass fire incidents particularly as this spell of strong hot sunshine (and low humidity) comes after some months now of low rainfall across Wales – again indications we have from our modelling capability continue to indicate some exceptional conditions for “fire weather” developing.
In summary then – we will see another Amber warning issued shortly later for Mon/Tues for parts of Wales not currently covered by the current warning. A red warning will be issued for England, but not Wales – it will however generate a lot of UK wide coverage. It will be hot everywhere – especially on Monday and Tuesday – quite possibly record breaking and the cumulative effects of some hot nights and a couple of hot days on people and perhaps infrastructure could mean many agencies have a difficult time over the coming days.
